Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35cc…8257 crypto 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (315 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized +$0 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate51%39W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day315.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$6
sports 35% −$8
world 12% −$1
other 4% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (315 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 22% -14.6%
≤30d 77 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 22% -14.6%
≤90d 77 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 22% -14.6%
all 77 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 22% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover315.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 22% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 16% -22.8%
15% -26.3% 8% -30.2%
20% -33.5% 6% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses39 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)77 / 102
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day315.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 53¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zhang Shuai Zhang 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Washington Nationals 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 27¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+268%)
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Tunisia 90¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 49¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Under 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Under 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Spread: Hurricanes (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$1 -14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 -3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 43¢ $1 7m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 87¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 1h
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 100¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.33 · official $15.89 · 331 history records