Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35cb…4745 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$70 (-2%) realized +$89 · open −$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$371
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +30.1% +17.7% 50% 50% -2.4%
≤30d 4 -35.0% -41.2% 25% 25% -21.2%
≤90d 27 +42.3% +28.8% 48% 41% -16.1%
all 30 +32.8% +20.1% 47% 40% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.1% 40% -15.5%
10% +8.6% 23% -23.6%
15% -1.9% 17% -31.0%
20% -11.5% 10% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +106% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$40 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$159
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage118d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 58¢ 0¢ $159 $0 −$159 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $330 −$22 -7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $81 +$54 +67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $98 −$58 -59%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $154 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $87 −$60 -69%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $102 +$85 +84%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $174 −$27 -15%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $51 −$21 -41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $101 +$13 +12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $375 +$16 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $215 +$50 +23%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $102 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 11 $51 −$30 -59%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $152 −$32 -21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $203 +$18 +9%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $203 +$47 +23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $102 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $152 +$20 +13%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $356 +$52 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $45 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 09 $3 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 22 $37 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 21 $30 −$12 -40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 21 $40 +$16 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 58¢ $161 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 64¢ $161 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 45¢ $116 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $116 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $94 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 48¢ $94 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $99 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 40¢ $98 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $137 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 96¢ $135 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 57¢ $81 28h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Liquid 19¢ $37 17d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Liquid 24¢ $98 17d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sharks 29¢ $51 17d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play BUY BetBoom Team 15¢ $26 34d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY MOUZ 13¢ $51 34d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY MOUZ 20¢ $102 34d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Vitality 10¢ $10 34d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Vitality 37¢ $51 34d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $48 35d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 16¢ $26 35d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B SELL Legacy 58¢ $187 36d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Legacy 31¢ $102 36d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A SELL paiN 5¢ $16 37d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY paiN 2¢ $5 37d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY paiN 13¢ $26 37d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY paiN 30¢ $51 37d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A SELL paiN 45¢ $68 37d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY paiN 21¢ $15 37d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A SELL paiN 31¢ $25 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 138 history records