Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x35c8…90cb other 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,976 (+3%) realized +$5,061 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%92W / 102L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$756per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$4,766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$653
7 days+$1,828
14 days+$13,676
30 days+$13,676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$5,323
sports 28% −$1,297
crypto 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +29.5% +17.2% 33% 33% +10.2%
≤30d 18 +77.1% +60.2% 50% 50% +61.5%
≤90d 136 +10.1% -0.4% 46% 46% -4.5%
all 194 +3.7% -6.2% 47% 47% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 47% -6.1%
10% -15.1% 41% -15.1%
15% -23.3% 38% -23.3%
20% -30.9% 34% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,028) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$795 vs −$677 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$4,766
Realized+$5,061
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses92 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions2
Markets (closed)194 / 196
History coverage131d
Avg bet$756
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $3,560 $3,524 −$36 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 13¢ 12¢ $1,291 $1,241 −$50 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,272 −$1,217 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $831 +$3,745 +451%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $500 −$402 -80%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $308 −$296 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $2,429 −$2,384 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,343 +$3,041 +226%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $611 +$1,010 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,593 −$1,570 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $572 +$1,031 +180%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $434 +$1,949 +449%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,566 +$2,015 +129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,496 +$2,004 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,055 +$4,366 +414%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,377 +$2,538 +107%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,374 −$1,275 -93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 −$186 -92%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $598 −$594 -99%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $3,650 −$3,610 -99%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $680 −$664 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $183 +$26 +14%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $92 +$190 +206%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 19 $328 +$526 +160%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $1,493 +$1,007 +67%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,146 +$947 +83%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $444 −$324 -73%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,343 −$1,325 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,648 −$2,049 -77%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,000 −$768 -77%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1,543 +$998 +65%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $458 −$367 -80%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1,372 −$1,355 -99%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $1,509 −$1,487 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $4,005 +$3,310 +83%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $1,239 −$992 -80%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $286 −$279 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2,286 +$2,048 +90%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,066 +$1,034 +97%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $540 −$530 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $1,886 −$1,852 -98%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $303 −$300 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadena May 08 $295 +$168 +57%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $807 +$320 +40%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $2,068 +$3,010 +146%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $281 +$41 +14%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $540 +$515 +95%
Will Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC end in a draw? May 06 $1,201 +$322 +27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $2,138 −$2,100 -98%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $2,969 −$2,957 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1,251 −$1,119 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 13¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 13¢ $759 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 13¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 13¢ $513 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $30 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $1,472 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $20 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $2,091 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 9¢ $30 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $2 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $87 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $173 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $459 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $2 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $220 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $14 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $369 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 35¢ $10 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 35¢ $540 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $225 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 7¢ $98 26h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $500 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 0¢ $12 30h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $24 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $1,223 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $611 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $571 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $308 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,765.75 · official $4,765.75 (match) · 439 history records