Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35c5…80ba politics 5 markets active 6d ago coverage 100d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-56%) realized −$27 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$60
other 29% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.1% -42.2% 33% 33% -51.2%
≤30d 3 -36.1% -42.2% 33% 33% -51.2%
≤90d 3 -36.1% -42.2% 33% 33% -51.2%
all 3 -36.1% -42.2% 33% 33% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.2% 33% -51.2%
10% -47.7% 33% -55.9%
15% -52.8% 33% -60.2%
20% -57.4% 0% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage100d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-69%)
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $26 −$14 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $22 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 6d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 6d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 23d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 23d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.03 · official $19.03 (match) · 7 history records