Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x35c4…d144
weather · 842 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$56 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$50
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$821
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses531 / 279
Open positions31
Markets (closed)810 / 842
History coverage20d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day132.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 31 History 810 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$389
14 days−$87
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $57 $60 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 65¢ 97¢ $39 $58 +$19 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 90¢ 100¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $24 $40 +$16 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 70¢ 100¢ $23 $33 +$10 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? No 77¢ 76¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? No 85¢ 100¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $18 $28 +$10 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 18¢ 100¢ $5 $25 +$20 (+449%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? No 27¢ 100¢ $5 $20 +$15 (+267%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 36¢ 100¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+175%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 97¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $17 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 75¢ 93¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 −$26 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$20 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 8? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 −$15 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $35 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $18 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $17 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $14 +$6 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 73¢ $4 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 73¢ $2 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 73¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 76¢ $12 59m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 87¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 21¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 25¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 15¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 351 -4.0% -13.1% 66% 30% -15.1%
≤30d 810 +6.6% -3.5% 66% 33% -9.6%
≤90d 810 +6.6% -3.5% 66% 33% -9.6%
all 810 +6.6% -3.5% 66% 33% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover132.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 33% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 23% -18.2%
15% -21.2% 19% -26.1%
20% -28.9% 15% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $820.85 · official $820.35 (match) · 3500 history records