Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35c2…8d73 sports 15 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$196 (-51%) realized −$196 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-66.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -63.1% -66.6% 20% 20% -57.2%
≤30d 15 -63.1% -66.6% 20% 20% -57.2%
≤90d 15 -63.1% -66.6% 20% 20% -57.2%
all 15 -63.1% -66.6% 20% 20% -57.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.6% 20% -57.2%
10% -69.8% 20% -61.3%
15% -72.8% 20% -65.0%
20% -75.4% 20% -68.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $70 −$46 -66%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $37 +$22 +60%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $16 +$16 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $40 +$25 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $11 31h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $37 32h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $59 33h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $14 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $15 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $10 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $18 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $13 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $9 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $16 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $14 5d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $16 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $18 5d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $18 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $12 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $40 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $61 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records