Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
35 0x35c2…51ab crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$99 (+5%) realized +$100 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% $0
crypto 36% +$73
sports 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 38% -0.4%
≤30d 8 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 38% -0.4%
≤90d 8 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 38% -0.4%
all 8 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 38% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 38% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 38% -9.9%
15% -20.8% 38% -18.6%
20% -28.6% 38% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$17 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,259
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 72¢ $1,151 $1,151 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $207 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$27 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$6 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $9 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $54 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $194 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $207 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $17 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $29 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $15 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $17 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $8 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 53m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $30 54m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $1,151 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $13 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,259.18 · official $1,259.18 (match) · 49 history records