Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
35 0x35c1…6ce1 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$24 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$27
crypto 20% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +52.2% +37.7% 100% 100% +37.7%
≤30d 2 +23.7% +11.9% 50% 50% -1.7%
≤90d 2 +23.7% +11.9% 50% 50% -1.7%
all 2 +23.7% +11.9% 50% 50% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 50% -1.7%
10% +1.2% 50% -11.1%
15% -8.6% 50% -19.7%
20% -17.5% 50% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$17 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage13d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $312 $302 −$10 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $211 $209 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $104 $100 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $111 +$58 +52%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $356 −$17 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.19 · official $611.19 (match) · 26 history records