Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x35bf…3a4d other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,040 (+8%) realized +$2,040 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,636per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$861
sports 8% −$2,030
crypto 8% +$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.7% -8.9% 75% 75% -12.7%
≤30d 16 +0.7% -8.9% 75% 75% -12.7%
≤90d 16 +0.7% -8.9% 75% 75% -12.7%
all 16 +0.7% -8.9% 75% 75% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 75% -12.7%
10% -17.6% 38% -21.0%
15% -25.5% 25% -28.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$1,357 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,040
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,636
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $2,046 −$2,030 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,029 −$1,240 -61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,007 +$266 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,818 −$1,803 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3,009 +$324 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,126 +$224 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,126 +$404 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $973 +$273 +28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,008 +$380 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3,337 +$897 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $2,812 +$453 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $892 −$355 -40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,008 +$317 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,925 +$962 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,044 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $789 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $2,007 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,818 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $2,029 25h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $3,009 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $973 32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,126 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,126 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,004 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,333 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,812 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 51¢ $536 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $888 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,008 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,925 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records