Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35bd…3df3 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-8%) realized −$65 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate75%27W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$83
sports 5% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -2.7% -11.9% 75% 44% -17.6%
≤30d 36 -2.7% -11.9% 75% 44% -17.6%
≤90d 36 -2.7% -11.9% 75% 44% -17.6%
all 36 -2.7% -11.9% 75% 44% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 44% -17.6%
10% -20.4% 28% -25.4%
15% -28.1% 14% -32.6%
20% -35.1% 8% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses27 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 33¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Netherlands 3¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 33¢ $20 32m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 22h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 25h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 67¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.50 · official $20.50 (match) · 79 history records