Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
35 0x35b8…5e92 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$113 (-8%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$707
other 14% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +44.0% +30.3% 50% 43% +44.5%
≤30d 14 +44.0% +30.3% 50% 43% +44.5%
≤90d 14 +44.0% +30.3% 50% 43% +44.5%
all 14 +44.0% +30.3% 50% 43% +44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.3% 43% +44.5%
10% +17.8% 36% +30.7%
15% +6.4% 29% +18.0%
20% -4.0% 29% +6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +104% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$55 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $300 +$99 +33%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $114 +$845 +741%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $173 +$123 +71%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 −$3 -20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $77 −$75 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 +$36 +89%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$6 -19%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $269 −$248 -92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $277 +$54 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $89 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $87 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $4 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $9 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $46 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $55 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $11 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $933 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $6 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 11¢ $25 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 5¢ $21 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $4 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $8 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $7 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 10¢ $5 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 11¢ $5 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 15¢ $3 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $12 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records