Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35b8…898a sports 455 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$936 (+3%) realized +$935 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%227W / 206L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$1,062
14 days+$1,175
30 days+$1,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$1,261
other 16% −$325
world 6% −$7
finance 1% −$29
politics 1% −$63
culture 0% −$17
weather 0% +$10
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +43.6% +29.9% 72% 72% +33.8%
≤30d 74 +16.1% +5.0% 61% 59% +7.9%
≤90d 264 -24.5% -31.7% 41% 36% -15.5%
all 433 -2.6% -11.9% 52% 41% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 41% -6.9%
10% -20.3% 40% -15.8%
15% -28.0% 36% -23.9%
20% -35.1% 34% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$37 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$935
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses227 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions9
Markets (closed)433 / 455
History coverage175d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 54¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Under 50¢ 50¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 67¢ 56¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $66 +$50 +76%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 +$51 +67%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $127 −$103 -81%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $66 −$63 -95%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $76 +$71 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$116 +114%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $56 +$42 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $86 +$91 +105%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $87 +$126 +146%
EC Juventude leading at halftime? Jun 14 $76 +$87 +114%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $147 +$143 +97%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 14 $66 +$48 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $66 +$50 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $76 +$65 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $117 +$144 +124%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $96 +$94 +97%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $147 +$128 +87%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 12 $147 −$145 -99%
Zantedeschi vs. Mazzola: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $66 −$65 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $147 +$190 +129%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $76 +$77 +101%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $66 −$65 -98%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $56 +$59 +105%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 10 $76 −$75 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $137 +$92 +68%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $176 +$146 +83%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) Jun 10 $76 +$74 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 10 $87 +$66 +76%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $127 −$125 -99%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-03-07? Jun 08 $23 −$18 -78%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $147 +$103 +70%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 07 $66 +$67 +101%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $127 +$85 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $66 −$66 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $127 +$93 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $127 +$118 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $239 −$235 -98%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $86 −$85 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 04 $96 −$95 -98%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $86 −$85 -99%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $86 −$85 -98%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 04 $127 +$89 +70%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $127 +$105 +83%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $86 +$84 +97%
Lajal vs. Riedi: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 02 $66 +$54 +83%
Duckworth vs. Harris: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 02 $66 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Po BUY 19¢ $97 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $46 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $66 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND C BUY $15 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 10¢ $24 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks $3 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $127 10h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 59¢ $76 10h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $66 10h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. BUY 34¢ $122 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Spread BUY $26 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $66 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $56 23h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $76 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY 29¢ $56 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Spre BUY $36 45h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spread BUY 16¢ $56 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Saudi BUY $5 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: BUY $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spread BUY $34 2d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 56¢ $56 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $86 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $87 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U BUY $21 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND BUY $31 2d
EC Juventude leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $76 3d
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman BUY Victoria Milovanova 57¢ $66 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Nethe BUY $5 3d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 50¢ $147 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.53 · official $426.53 · 1104 history records