Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x35b7…fbcf sports 435 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,595 (+2%) realized +$3,595 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate78%341W / 94L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$485per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$906est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$1,133
14 days+$1,825
30 days+$3,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$2,834
other 11% +$825
crypto 1% +$104
world 1% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 92% 42% -2.4%
≤30d 94 +1.2% -8.4% 74% 40% -5.1%
≤90d 390 +2.5% -7.2% 77% 34% -7.7%
all 435 +2.7% -7.1% 78% 34% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 34% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 16% -16.6%
15% -24.1% 10% -24.6%
20% -31.5% 7% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$688) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$146 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,595
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses341 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$906
Open positions0
Markets (closed)435 / 435
History coverage102d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 435 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,970 +$91 +3%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1,940 −$132 -7%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 26 $282 +$27 +10%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1,790 +$210 +12%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $162 +$22 +14%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2,045 +$205 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $405 +$95 +24%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1,312 +$91 +7%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1,537 +$198 +13%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2,838 +$108 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $900 +$100 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,880 +$118 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $840 +$159 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,766 +$32 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $172 +$228 +132%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,080 −$431 -40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $810 +$190 +24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $148 +$102 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $697 +$197 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $217 −$170 -79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$16 -30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $610 +$81 +13%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $144 +$105 +73%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $125 +$75 +60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,178 +$72 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $440 +$59 +14%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $258 +$90 +35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $197 +$71 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,225 +$270 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$38 -79%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,885 −$292 -16%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $9 −$5 -57%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,140 +$59 +5%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $12 −$8 -67%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1,013 +$73 +7%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $344 −$289 -84%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,409 +$89 +6%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $52 +$48 +92%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,290 +$32 +1%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $93 +$60 +65%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $498 +$32 +6%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $37 −$28 -76%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $424 +$97 +23%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $942 +$57 +6%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $134 +$66 +49%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $162 +$15 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $108 +$88 +82%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $245 +$23 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 39¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 38¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 64¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 64¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 64¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 64¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 64¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 64¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 64¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 64¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 64¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 64¢ $255 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 91¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 91¢ $55 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 91¢ $83 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 91¢ $88 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 91¢ $119 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 91¢ $81 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 91¢ $168 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 91¢ $33 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL No 89¢ $10 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,910 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2737 history records