Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35b3…6d50 crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$622 (+48%) realized +$622 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day63.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.2% -7.5% 53% 41% -8.8%
≤30d 17 +2.2% -7.5% 53% 41% -8.8%
≤90d 17 +2.2% -7.5% 53% 41% -8.8%
all 17 +2.2% -7.5% 53% 41% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 41% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 35% -17.5%
15% -24.4% 29% -25.5%
20% -31.8% 24% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$34 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$622
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day63.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $224 −$80 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $89 −$33 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $67 +$34 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $112 +$91 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $133 +$38 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $189 −$58 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$30 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $111 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $71 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $105 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$32 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records