Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35b1…8962 crypto 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$542 (+1%) realized +$565 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%143W / 154L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,303
7 days−$6,303
14 days−$6,303
30 days−$6,303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$5,728
crypto 25% −$2,301
sports 17% −$1,506
other 12% −$896
finance 3% −$602
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -63.8% -67.2% 17% 11% -34.6%
≤30d 53 -63.8% -67.2% 17% 11% -34.6%
≤90d 85 -60.4% -64.2% 19% 12% -38.0%
all 297 -10.4% -18.9% 48% 44% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 44% -9.0%
10% -26.7% 37% -17.7%
15% -33.8% 32% -25.7%
20% -40.3% 26% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$100 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized+$565
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses143 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)297 / 298
History coverage126d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 53¢ 49¢ $300 $277 −$23 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $164 +$21 +13%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 22 $1,848 +$128 +7%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $326 −$157 -48%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $494 +$6 +1%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $7,378 +$162 +2%
Udinese Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $924 −$696 -75%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $22 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $43 −$39 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$20 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $150 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4AM ET Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jun 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-16.5) Jun 22 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5AM ET Jun 22 $219 +$40 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $144 −$93 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $356 −$37 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $387 −$146 -38%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $286 −$286 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Jun 22 $531 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $606 −$382 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $350 −$350 -100%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) Jun 22 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $387 −$387 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $390 −$390 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Jun 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,779 −$277 -16%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $108 −$92 -85%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $615 +$99 +16%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $900 +$191 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $304 47m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Austria 95¢ $184 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) SELL Austria 94¢ $0 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) SELL Austria 98¢ $1,976 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Austria 84¢ $164 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $30 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 66¢ $56 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 52¢ $32 2h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Austria 92¢ $44 7h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Austria 92¢ $50 7h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Austria 92¢ $50 7h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Austria 92¢ $200 7h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Austria 92¢ $501 7h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Austria 92¢ $1,002 7h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $46 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $326 11h
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 11h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,715 11h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $367 11h
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $494 11h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $83 13h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $200 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.36 · official $277.36 (match) · 1753 history records