Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35ae…b929 sports 289 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,757 (+12%) realized +$1,750 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%115W / 172L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$228est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days−$261
14 days−$537
30 days+$858
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$838
other 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +10.1% -0.4% 45% 45% -20.5%
≤30d 256 +1.8% -7.9% 40% 39% -2.9%
≤90d 287 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 40% -3.5%
all 287 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 40% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 40% -3.5%
10% -18.5% 39% -12.7%
15% -26.4% 36% -21.1%
20% -33.6% 32% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$31 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$1,750
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses115 / 172
Est. fees paid−$228
Open positions2
Markets (closed)287 / 289
History coverage44d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ 100¢ $30 $57 +$27 (+89%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 169 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$79 +156%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$47 +93%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $20 +$30 +145%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$40 +197%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $61 −$10 -16%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $36 −$30 -84%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $83 +$50 +60%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$41 +134%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $33 −$2 -6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $101 +$30 +29%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $201 +$30 +15%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $41 +$34 +84%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $41 +$32 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $212 −$104 -49%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $41 +$34 +83%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $41 +$49 +121%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$66 +325%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$15 +76%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$21 +69%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$2 -6%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $221 +$45 +20%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$26 +127%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $52 +$37 +71%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $273 −$231 -85%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$6 +29%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $239 −$20 -8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $234 −$201 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 22¢ $20 17m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 16¢ $21 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $21 17h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $130 19h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $20 19h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $31 20h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $98 20h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 55¢ $20 21h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 48¢ $30 21h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $50 41h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $61 41h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 33¢ $20 42h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 40¢ $20 42h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $10 43h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 75¢ $65 43h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 54¢ $10 44h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $41 45h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $25 45h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 20¢ $5 45h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 55¢ $30 46h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $20 46h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 11¢ $5 47h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 90¢ $50 47h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 9¢ $5 47h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $107 47h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $22 47h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $31 47h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 60¢ $26 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.62 · official $56.62 (match) · 690 history records