Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
35 0x35ac…f564 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%39W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$6
crypto 8% +$3
politics 3% −$1
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 +0.2% -9.3% 74% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses39 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage526d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 03 $31 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $19 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $32 $0 +1%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $5,871 −$6 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 12 $39 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 05 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Mar 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? Mar 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will 'Captain America: Brave New World' have the best domestic opening Mar 12 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $32 +$2 +7%
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? Feb 07 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $40 64d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 92d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $25 92d
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 93d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 121d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 123d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $17 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 151d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $13 182d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $41 182d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $31 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $19 242d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 272d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $12 273d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 273d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $18 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $27 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 334d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $32 335d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 366d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $4 366d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 395d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 395d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.75 · official $56.75 (match) · 109 history records