Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35a9…cb39 weather 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-6%) realized −$23 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$26
14 days−$22
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$15
sports 10% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -35.8% -41.9% 40% 5% -17.1%
≤30d 26 -25.2% -32.3% 50% 12% -16.5%
≤90d 26 -25.2% -32.3% 50% 12% -16.5%
all 26 -25.2% -32.3% 50% 12% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 12% -16.5%
10% -38.8% 8% -24.5%
15% -44.7% 8% -31.8%
20% -50.1% 8% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage17d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? No 92¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? No 85¢ 42¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Yes 27¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? Jun 25 $13 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? Jun 25 $32 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $29 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $51 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $54 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $51 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -43%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$5 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $28 −$12 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 9? Jun 10 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? SELL No 43¢ $10 17m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 19m
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 83¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 89¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 92¢ $39 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $32 14h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $22 14h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $21 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $31 29h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $29 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $54 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 23? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.24 · official $4.24 (match) · 60 history records