Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x35a7…44f4
other · 89 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$11 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$212
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses63 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)70 / 89
History coverage213d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 19 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$14
14 days+$24
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Les Wexner charged by June 30? No 91¢ 91¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast attend UFC Freedom 250? No 94¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30? No 94¢ 86¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-9%)
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? No 91¢ 96¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by more than 15%? No 94¢ 58¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-38%)
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.0B? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes 95¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? No 89¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will "The Invite" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No 88¢ 66¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump's tie be yellow? No 92¢ 82¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No 60¢ 28¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? No 90¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani stream on Twitch again by June 12? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will PPI YoY be at least 8.0% in May? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $1.0T? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in May? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Takuya Onishi be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Jenni Gibbons be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Jessica Watkins be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the US lose jobs in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +9%
Will Docusign (DOCU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $2 $0 +12%
Will lululemon athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $2 $0 +11%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/25-5/31) Jun 02 $1 $0 +18%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $3 +$1 +16%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 47.0 and 47.9 in May? Jun 02 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? Jun 02 $1 $0 +34%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $5.00 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Will "Amsterdam" be in the headlines this week? Jun 01 $2 $0 +21%
Will "Croatia" be in the headlines this week? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +36%
Will "Stupid" be in the headlines this week? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +3%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 01 $8 $0 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Comey smile in his mugshot? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will MongoDB Q1 Atlas revenue growth be below 20%? May 29 $5 $0 +6%
Will Dollar Tree Q1 comparable store net sales growth be below 3%? May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Burlington Stores (BURL) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $2 $0 +8%
Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $1 $0 +13%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week? May 27 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? May 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.75 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1 +$1 +117%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24) May 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bernie's remarks not air? May 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will James Comey leave the country by May 15? May 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
James Comey mugshot released by May 5? May 06 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026? May 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Iran strike India by April 30, 2026? May 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026? May 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will Iran strike Italy by April 30, 2026? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026? May 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by April 30, 2026? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% +$19
politics 28% −$2
world 10% −$4
finance 9% +$4
economics 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
culture 3% −$4
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Les Wexner charged by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $20 1h
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $17 1h
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 94¢ $17 5h
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 5h
Will "The Invite" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer BUY No 88¢ $9 5h
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 10h
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 10h
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 10h
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? BUY No 91¢ $11 10h
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 95¢ $20 31h
Will Donald Trump's tie be yellow? BUY No 92¢ $5 39h
Will MrBeast attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 94¢ $20 39h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 98¢ $70 40h
Will Zohran Mamdani stream on Twitch again by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $12 40h
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.0B? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 8d
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete BUY Yes 95¢ $10 8d
Will PPI YoY be at least 8.0% in May? BUY No 98¢ $50 9d
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in May? BUY No 98¢ $50 9d
Will Jessica Watkins be chosen for the Artemis III mission? BUY No 92¢ $30 12d
Will Takuya Onishi be chosen for the Artemis III mission? BUY No 71¢ $5 12d
Will Jenni Gibbons be chosen for the Artemis III mission? BUY No 60¢ $5 12d
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 47.0 and 47.9 in May? BUY No 98¢ $50 12d
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $5 13d
Will MongoDB Q1 Atlas revenue growth be below 20%? BUY No 94¢ $5 16d
Will Burlington Stores (BURL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 16d
Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 16d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.9% +3.0% 100% 20% -4.7%
≤30d 40 +13.2% +2.4% 98% 38% -5.5%
≤90d 67 +6.3% -3.9% 93% 25% -6.8%
all 70 +3.2% -6.6% 90% 24% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 24% -7.2%
10% -15.5% 7% -16.1%
15% -23.7% 6% -24.2%
20% -31.2% 3% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.94 · official $211.95 (match) · 161 history records