Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
35 0x35a6…87b1 weather 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate66%157W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$10
14 days−$20
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$11
crypto 0% −$4
other 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +11.8% +1.1% 97% 23% -8.7%
≤30d 206 +2.3% -7.5% 71% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 238 +1.7% -8.0% 66% 6% -9.4%
all 238 +1.7% -8.0% 66% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 6% -9.4%
10% -16.8% 4% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses157 / 81
Open positions15
Markets (closed)238 / 253
History coverage45d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? No 96¢ 98¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 19? No 98¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? No 93¢ 93¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? No 98¢ 97¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 97¢ 93¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on June 16 Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 69°F or below on June 1 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 11? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 100-101°F on June 1 Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 7? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 8? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on June 8? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on June 7? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 8? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 8? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 8? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on June 8? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 8? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 9? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 31? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 1? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $16 26m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $9 46m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $25 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 15h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $14 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $13 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $9 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $25 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $25 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.40 · official $173.97 · 836 history records