Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
35 0x359f…d787 sports 46 markets active 2d ago coverage 571d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+0%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$6
politics 39% −$10
sports 22% +$68
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 46 -5.0% -14.1% 28% 28% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 28% -9.1%
10% -22.3% 28% -17.8%
15% -29.8% 28% -25.8%
20% -36.7% 28% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$9 · ×2.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

571d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage571d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $610 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $810 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $480 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $390 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 27 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 27 $1,270 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $340 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Hawks Nov 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Nov 12 $30 +$23 +75%
Capitals vs. Penguins Nov 07 $15 +$15 +96%
Hawks vs. Pacers Nov 03 $9 +$7 +75%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Delaware Blue Hens vs. Jacksonville State Oct 19 $5 +$7 +133%
Capitals vs. Rangers Oct 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Rays vs. Orioles Sep 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Brewers vs. Padres Sep 23 $8 +$7 +92%
Chargers vs. Raiders Sep 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Commanders vs. Packers Sep 15 $4 +$2 +59%
Cubs vs. Blue Jays Aug 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Astros vs. Yankees Aug 12 $7 +$6 +89%
Will Victoria Livschitz win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Champions Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Braves vs. Reds Aug 06 $7 +$5 +72%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Jul 30 $7 +$5 +75%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 07 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $6 $0 -2%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Everton wins the Premier League? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. 76ers Feb 05 $115 +$102 +89%
Magic vs. Warriors Feb 04 $146 +$100 +68%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Feb 03 $103 −$103 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Heat Dec 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Bucks vs. Heat Nov 27 $85 −$85 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks Nov 26 $56 +$29 +52%
Pistons vs. Hornets Nov 22 $28 +$29 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $150 41h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $280 41h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $499 41h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $150 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $500 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $280 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $409 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $410 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $280 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $499 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $500 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $160 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $380 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $390 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $380 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $160 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $390 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $260 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $310 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $360 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $310 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $360 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records