Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
35 0x359d…206e crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-7%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% $0
other 50% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +49.8% +35.5% 62% 23% +39.7%
≤30d 13 +49.8% +35.5% 62% 23% +39.7%
≤90d 13 +49.8% +35.5% 62% 23% +39.7%
all 13 +49.8% +35.5% 62% 23% +39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.5% 23% +39.7%
10% +22.5% 23% +26.3%
15% +10.7% 23% +14.1%
20% -0.2% 15% +2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +128% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +75%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$10 +914%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.86 (match) · 23 history records