Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x359a…8de9 crypto 211 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-1%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%88W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$255
7 days−$71
14 days+$164
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -20.3% -27.9% 45% 37% -10.5%
≤30d 211 -24.0% -31.2% 42% 35% -8.9%
≤90d 211 -24.0% -31.2% 42% 35% -8.9%
all 211 -24.0% -31.2% 42% 35% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 35% -8.9%
10% -37.8% 32% -17.7%
15% -43.8% 27% -25.6%
20% -49.3% 19% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$26 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses88 / 123
Open positions0
Markets (closed)211 / 211
History coverage18d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 211 Trades
no open positions (111 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$143 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $158 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $90 +$110 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $71 +$229 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $64 +$136 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$39 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$88 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$83 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $58 +$42 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$31 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$67 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$66 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $42 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records