Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3594…dc58
politics · 191 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,750 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,236 · open +$552
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,468
Realized−$4,236
Unrealized+$552
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses63 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)185 / 191
History coverage540d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 6 History 185 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days+$125
14 days+$125
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 49¢ 70¢ $1,000 $1,449 +$449 (+45%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 84¢ $500 $515 +$15 (+3%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No 7¢ 13¢ $116 $216 +$100 (+86%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? No 21¢ 21¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? No 21¢ 14¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Will 'Kingdom Come: Deliverance II' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? No 88¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 5+ times during the Detroit speech on Tuesday? No 13¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
TrumpRX launched by February 28, 2026? No 24¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? No 50¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Grok 4.20 released by February 28? No 17¢ 0¢ $344 $0 −$344 (-100%)
Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
TikTok sale announced in 2025? No 24¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? No 0¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Israel military action on Yemen before June? No 19¢ 0¢ $1,606 $0 −$1,606 (-100%)
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? No 4¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Fort Bragg on Friday? No 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? No 22¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? No 10¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Will 'Dispatch' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? No 10¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $3,598 $0 −$3,598 (-100%)
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 16, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $300 −$40 -13%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,431 +$277 +19%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $484 −$297 -61%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $514 −$503 -98%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $511 −$409 -80%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,851 +$1,094 +59%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $1,200 +$32 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 27 $1,002 +$578 +58%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? May 25 $103 +$181 +175%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $1,055 −$661 -63%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? May 19 $130 −$111 -86%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 14 $1,652 +$167 +10%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 08 $705 −$65 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 08 $900 +$113 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 02 $1,404 +$203 +14%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 23 $2,083 +$213 +10%
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? Apr 12 $4,799 −$3,598 -75%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $800 +$197 +25%
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? Apr 12 $1,400 −$70 -5%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Apr 12 $662 −$409 -62%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $200 −$22 -11%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 12 $175 −$31 -18%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 09 $800 −$61 -8%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $1,230 −$847 -69%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to Apr 02 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $500 −$500 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 01 $1,000 −$50 -5%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $200 −$83 -41%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31? Mar 31 $1,200 +$100 +8%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Mar 31 $1,500 +$305 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 31 $300 −$69 -23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 30 $2,283 +$717 +31%
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? Mar 05 $1,600 +$332 +21%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 05 $200 −$148 -74%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 05 $300 −$159 -53%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 03 $300 −$211 -70%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 03 $300 −$215 -72%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 03 $450 −$389 -86%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $200 −$3 -2%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Feb 28 $400 −$400 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $300 +$73 +24%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union addr Feb 25 $1,134 +$968 +85%
Will Trump say "Coal" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $456 +$1,479 +324%
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 25 $1,382 +$747 +54%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during the 2026 State of the Un Feb 24 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union Feb 18 $181 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 41% −$1,466
world 25% +$695
other 17% −$2,615
politics 15% +$393
finance 1% −$550
culture 0% −$93
crypto 0% −$30
sports 0% −$20
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $500 1h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY No 21¢ $50 1h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY No 18¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $260 25h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $510 26h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $206 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $300 29h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $510 29h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1,708 29h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $187 29h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $121 3d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut SELL Yes 98¢ $104 3d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut SELL Yes 1¢ $11 3d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 95¢ $100 3d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut SELL Yes 10¢ $102 3d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 30¢ $514 3d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 47¢ $511 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1,311 4d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d BUY No 9¢ $52 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,393 5d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $484 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $486 5d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d BUY No 6¢ $69 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $66 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,191 13d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $660 13d
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 99¢ $1,232 18d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 18d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $426 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -24.4% -31.6% 43% 29% -7.3%
≤30d 14 -4.3% -13.4% 57% 36% -8.0%
≤90d 36 -12.1% -20.4% 47% 31% -20.7%
all 185 -13.0% -21.3% 34% 25% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 25% -15.0%
10% -28.8% 21% -23.1%
15% -35.7% 17% -30.6%
20% -42.0% 13% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,467.73 · official $2,467.73 (match) · 618 history records