Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3594…2599 other 56 markets active 3d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$6 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 31% +$4
world 27% −$4
other 22% +$1
politics 14% +$2
tech 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 -4.5% -13.6% 71% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 21 -4.5% -13.6% 71% 0% -10.1%
all 21 -4.5% -13.6% 71% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,617
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Open positions35
Markets (closed)21 / 56
History coverage22d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $830 $834 +$4 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $237 $239 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $76 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+2%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Chirayu Rana divorced? No 98¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 97¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $137 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 20 Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $164 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 02 $315 +$3 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 02 $41 −$1 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 26 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $24 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $24 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $31 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $15 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,616.82 · official $1,616.83 (match) · 408 history records