Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3592…680c other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$14 (+6%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%5W / 20L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day68.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$12
sports 36% +$21
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.8% -3.4% 20% 12% -0.9%
≤30d 25 +6.8% -3.4% 20% 12% -0.9%
≤90d 25 +6.8% -3.4% 20% 12% -0.9%
all 25 +6.8% -3.4% 20% 12% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 12% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 12% -10.4%
15% -21.1% 12% -19.0%
20% -28.8% 12% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses5 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions21
Markets (closed)25 / 46
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day68.5
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 16 $8 −$4 -43%
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -19%
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF Jun 16 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -35%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +53%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $3 $0 -15%
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 16 $3 $0 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$15 +186%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes $0 0m
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1m
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $3 1m
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL Yes $0 1m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 22m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 22m
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes $0 26m
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes $0 26m
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes $0 26m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 52m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 52m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 52m
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 52m
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 52m
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes $3 52m
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 52m
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes $0 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 1h
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.15 · official $87.15 (match) · 219 history records