Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3591…ef9a sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58 (-18%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$56
other 45% −$8
crypto 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -60.4% -64.1% 20% 20% -43.9%
≤30d 19 -28.8% -35.6% 32% 32% -32.1%
≤90d 19 -28.8% -35.6% 32% 32% -32.1%
all 19 -28.8% -35.6% 32% 32% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 32% -32.1%
10% -41.7% 32% -38.6%
15% -47.4% 26% -44.6%
20% -52.5% 26% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage23d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins 65¢ 64¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $49 +$16 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +164%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $6 +$13 +214%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $9 +$8 +85%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $17 +$27 +157%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 65¢ $8 58m
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 50¢ $5 58m
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $6 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $10 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 7h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 74¢ $34 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 46h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 4d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 16d
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim BUY Yi Sak Lee 40¢ $12 19d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Alonzo Menifield 31¢ $6 19d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Tallison Teixeira 19¢ $6 19d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 19¢ $6 19d
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 22d
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 22d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 22d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 22d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 22d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.90 · official $28.90 (match) · 43 history records