Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
35 0x358f…d28d crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+3%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate91%32W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +0.7% -8.8% 91% 40% -7.9%
≤30d 35 +0.7% -8.8% 91% 40% -7.9%
≤90d 35 +0.7% -8.8% 91% 40% -7.9%
all 35 +0.7% -8.8% 91% 40% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 40% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -16.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -24.7%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$34 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses32 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $40 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $40 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $40 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $41 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.98 · official $45.98 (match) · 102 history records