Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:15:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x358e…5def other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 357d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+2%) realized +$111 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%51W / 39L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$60
tech 23% +$65
world 15% $0
politics 7% +$10
culture 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +83.9% +66.4% 67% 67% +52.4%
all 90 -5.6% -14.6% 57% 39% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 39% -7.6%
10% -22.8% 29% -16.4%
15% -30.2% 20% -24.5%
20% -37.1% 11% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% too few recent
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

357d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$111
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses51 / 39
Open positions6
Markets (closed)90 / 96
History coverage357d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 78¢ 64¢ $78 $64 −$14 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 22¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-10%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 26¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o Apr 28 $6 +$3 +42%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on Apr 10 $6 −$1 -25%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Apr 08 $4 +$10 +234%
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on October 31? Oct 18 $10 −$7 -70%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by Dec 31? Oct 09 $103 +$10 +10%
Will DraftKings acquire Railbird by October 31? Oct 04 $68 +$49 +72%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on October 31? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 23 $31 −$8 -26%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30? Sep 17 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on September 30? Sep 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on September 30? Sep 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more th Sep 10 $9 +$9 +104%
U.S. fertility rate up in Q2 2025? Sep 07 $49 −$14 -29%
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Sep 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th Sep 05 $9 −$9 -98%
"Demon Slayer" grosses higher than "The Conjuring" opening weekend? Sep 05 $50 +$21 +42%
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Sep 03 $9 −$9 -96%
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Sep 03 $9 −$9 -100%
OpenAI browser by September 30? Sep 03 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Perplexity acquire Chrome in 2025? Sep 03 $8 +$1 +7%
Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Sep 02 $64 +$6 +9%
OpenAI browser in 2025? Sep 01 $130 +$21 +16%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 31 $160 −$118 -74%
Will NVIDIA be the second largest company in the world by market cap o Aug 31 $16 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Aug 30 $1 +$1 +62%
Will MrBeast raise 40m on Monday September 1? Aug 30 $25 +$25 +100%
Will MrBeast raise 40m on Friday August 29? Aug 30 $2 −$2 -83%
Will MrBeast raise 40m on Tuesday September 2 or later? Aug 29 $7 +$9 +135%
1,400+ Measles cases in U.S. by August 31? Aug 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? Aug 24 $40 +$3 +6%
Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested by August 31? Aug 23 $130 −$114 -88%
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? Aug 22 $346 −$63 -18%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 22? Aug 20 $2 $0 +11%
1,375+ Measles cases in U.S. by August 31? Aug 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 22? Aug 17 $5 +$2 +33%
OpenAI browser by August 31? Aug 15 $140 +$46 +33%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 10 $42 +$7 +16%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? Aug 09 $41 −$17 -42%
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? Aug 09 $58 +$6 +11%
GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Aug 08 $40 +$16 +39%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025? Aug 07 $0 $0 +17%
Will anyone say "Open Source" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7 Aug 07 $34 −$34 -100%
Will anyone say "OpenAI" 5+ times during the OpenAI livestream on Augu Aug 07 $42 +$17 +40%
OpenAI social app in 2025? Aug 07 $48 +$1 +3%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? Aug 06 $100 −$7 -7%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 14? Aug 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cluely CEO Roy Lee get a girlfriend by August 31? Aug 06 $42 −$42 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 15 or later? Aug 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 13? Aug 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $26 1h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $26 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 1h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o SELL Yes 9¢ $1 54d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o SELL Yes 9¢ $2 54d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL Yes 4¢ $1 71d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL Yes 4¢ $0 72d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL Yes 4¢ $1 72d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL Yes 4¢ $0 72d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL Yes 4¢ $0 73d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 14¢ $5 73d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL Yes 4¢ $1 74d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o SELL Yes 9¢ $6 74d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 14¢ $8 74d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o BUY Yes 6¢ $0 100d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o BUY Yes 6¢ $0 101d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 4¢ $4 101d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o BUY Yes 6¢ $6 101d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $6 101d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $78 101d
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on October 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 245d
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on October 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 249d
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on October 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 251d
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by Dec 31? SELL No 94¢ $63 254d
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by Dec 31? SELL No 94¢ $38 256d
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by Dec 31? SELL No 94¢ $12 257d
Will DraftKings acquire Railbird by October 31? SELL No 85¢ $1 259d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.18 · official $198.18 (match) · 492 history records