Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
35 0x358b…339a politics 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$16
politics 38% −$17
sports 9% +$9
tech 5% −$2
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×9.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage130d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $442 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $283 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $275 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 29 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $357 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $241 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $238 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $227 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $436 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $187 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $444 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $192 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $247 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $171 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,185 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $215 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $184 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $353 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $246 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $188 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $242 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $221 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $212 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $255 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $248 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $222 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $226 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $201 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 29 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $269 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 28h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 18d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $200 21d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $200 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 23d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $172 23d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $172 24d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $241 24d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $241 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $238 26d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $238 26d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $227 27d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $227 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $194 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $194 27d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $187 27d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $187 28d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 28d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 28d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 29d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $207 30d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 407 history records