Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3582…10b9 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$186 (+4%) realized +$433 · open −$247
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$270
7 days+$335
14 days−$221
30 days+$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$770
sports 20% +$830
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -3.7% -12.9% 33% 33% +5.1%
≤30d 53 +26.1% +14.1% 30% 30% -6.3%
≤90d 53 +26.1% +14.1% 30% 30% -6.3%
all 53 +26.1% +14.1% 30% 30% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 30% -6.3%
10% +3.2% 30% -15.3%
15% -6.8% 30% -23.4%
20% -15.9% 28% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$72 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$433
Unrealized−$247
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 37
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage22d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $250 $10 −$240 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $203 +$249 +123%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $72 −$70 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 +$302 +295%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$243 +474%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $132 +$114 +87%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$155 +152%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $133 +$246 +186%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 +$88 +143%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$79 +52%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$89 +291%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $133 −$91 -68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$164 +318%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $107 +$381 +354%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $174 −$170 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$227 +443%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$110 +108%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $453 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 32h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 32h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $82 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $82 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $81 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $82 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.77 · official $52.77 (match) · 96 history records