Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

35 0x3581…9fb7 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover

Total PnL +$84 (+9%) realized +$112 · open −$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip

Net edge+31%after slip

Net WR73%break-even

Win rate73%19W / 7L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day11.3pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +73%

net ROI/market (all)+41.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	+56.8%	+41.9%	73%	73%	+64.7%
≤30d	26	+56.8%	+41.9%	73%	73%	+64.7%
≤90d	26	+56.8%	+41.9%	73%	73%	+64.7%
all	26	+56.8%	+41.9%	73%	73%	+64.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+41.9%	73%	+64.7%
10%	+28.3%	73%	+48.9%
15%	+15.9%	58%	+34.5%
20%	+4.5%	42%	+21.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +82% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +57% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late +100% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$12 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.9 per $1 lost it wins $4.9

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$125

Realized+$112

Unrealized−$28

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses19 / 7

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)26 / 51

History coverage6d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day11.3

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	31¢	22¢	$100	$73	−$27 (-27%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$53	$53	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$20	+$10	+50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$26	+$19	+72%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$10	+$43	+424%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$31	+$80	+262%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1	Jun 19	$21	+$47	+222%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$15	+$9	+62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$3	+29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$6	+57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$31	+$68	+222%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$17	+$5	+28%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$37	+$77	+209%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 17	$8	+$2	+28%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$16	−$16	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$23	−$23	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$13	+$5	+38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	−$1	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$3	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-95%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$2	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$15	+$7	+48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$22	−$22	-98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$2	+48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3	+$4	+140%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$53	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	31¢	$102	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	99¢	$45	27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20	30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$26	30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	17¢	$26	30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	20¢	$20	34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	41¢	$22	34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	42¢	$21	34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	BUY	40¢	$20	34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	11¢	$12	34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	37¢	$39	34h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$18	46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a	BUY	5¢	$6	46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a	BUY	5¢	$5	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a	BUY	2¢	$20	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1	BUY	8¢	$35	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1	BUY	6¢	$31	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end	BUY	16¢	$10	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1	BUY	27¢	$20	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1	BUY	30¢	$21	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end	BUY	9¢	$10	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1	BUY	27¢	$10	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1	BUY	19¢	$10	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$15	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$10	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.19 · official $148.43 · 77 history records