Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x357c…7dfe other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,255 (+60%) realized +$3,681 · open +$574
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%18W / 76L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,094now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$4
14 days−$161
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$5,988
culture 26% −$693
sports 15% −$459
politics 8% −$551
world 6% −$6
crypto 1% −$44
weather 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -22.5% -29.9% 29% 29% -10.8%
≤30d 33 -22.2% -29.6% 33% 27% -22.7%
≤90d 94 -12.4% -20.8% 19% 17% +17.5%
all 94 -12.4% -20.8% 19% 17% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 17% +17.5%
10% -28.4% 15% +6.2%
15% -35.3% 15% -4.0%
20% -41.6% 13% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +66% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$33 · ×10.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$2,094
Realized+$3,681
Unrealized+$574
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses18 / 76
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions8
Markets (closed)94 / 102
History coverage82d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $63 −$29 -46%
Will Uruguay finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 25 $26 −$21 -82%
Will Czechia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $0 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $7 −$2 -22%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 23 $89 +$36 +41%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $101 +$13 +13%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $18 +$16 +89%
Will Curaçao win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +411%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 +$32 +105%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $10 −$9 -98%
Northern Ireland leading at halftime? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $11 −$11 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $23 +$23 +101%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $11 +$14 +129%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $86 +$77 +90%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $18 −$18 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Fonseca Jun 01 $89 +$114 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $154 −$65 -42%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score May 31 $90 −$88 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $140 −$138 -98%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $47 −$46 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $51 +$3 +6%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 61m? May 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 49m? May 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? May 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 35m? May 28 $11 −$11 -99%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $1,055 +$102 +10%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 26 $44 −$42 -97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 31m? May 25 $4 −$4 -95%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g May 24 $39 −$37 -95%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 23 $74 −$72 -97%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in May? May 22 $89 −$81 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 22? May 22 $5 +$11 +222%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 22 $318 −$316 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 22? May 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 22? May 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 22? May 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 22? May 21 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No $34 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 19¢ $20 3h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 19¢ $5 3h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 19¢ $24 3h
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $202 4h
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $202 4h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 12¢ $2 6h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 12¢ $2 6h
Will Senegal win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 12¢ $10 6h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 76¢ $201 7h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 74¢ $177 7h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 63¢ $303 26h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 55¢ $101 26h
Will Uruguay finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes $5 28h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 68¢ $101 28h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 55¢ $101 29h
Will Czechia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Morocco win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St SELL Yes 81¢ $125 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $9 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $89 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $16 3d
Will Australia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will a player representing Morocco be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes $0 3d
Will a player representing Morocco be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes $0 3d
Will a player representing Morocco be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes $0 3d
Will a player representing Morocco be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,094.14 · official $2,094.14 (match) · 772 history records