Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x357b…6d41 sports 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$242 (-22%) realized −$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%53W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$307
14 days−$288
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$230
other 7% −$55
weather 3% +$10
crypto 1% −$16
politics 1% −$4
tech 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -62.0% -65.7% 23% 21% -64.0%
≤30d 102 -32.9% -39.3% 40% 39% -35.9%
≤90d 128 -28.8% -35.6% 41% 40% -33.5%
all 128 -28.8% -35.6% 41% 40% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 40% -33.5%
10% -41.7% 35% -39.9%
15% -47.4% 28% -45.7%
20% -52.5% 16% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses53 / 75
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)128 / 131
History coverage55d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 74¢ 72¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$1 -17%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $6 −$5 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 +$3 +23%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $7 +$3 +42%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $11 +$4 +38%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 −$3 -74%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Valorant: All Gamers vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution Series Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Jun 14 $21 +$6 +28%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Team Secret - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Grou Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoff Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 14 $26 −$13 -49%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 74¢ $12 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 70¢ $10 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $3 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner SELL Gen.G Global Academy 38¢ $6 17h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY Gen.G Global Academy 53¢ $6 17h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 44¢ $5 17h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 44¢ $2 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $4 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 49¢ $5 22h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $18 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $15 41h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $7 41h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $10 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 94¢ $14 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $11 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 51¢ $5 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $3 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 40¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 17¢ $1 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 73¢ $7 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $11 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 9¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 79¢ $7 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 20¢ $7 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $3 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $5 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.60 · official $15.60 (match) · 290 history records