Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:28:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3575…9a1c crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 694d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$645 (-62%) realized −$662 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$224
politics 34% −$216
sports 14% −$75
other 14% −$112
economics 2% −$22
tech 1% +$17
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-53.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +165.3% +140.0% 100% 100% +140.0%
≤30d 13 -60.3% -64.1% 15% 15% -22.9%
≤90d 46 -19.2% -26.9% 15% 15% -41.2%
all 99 -48.6% -53.5% 12% 11% -67.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.5% 11% -67.2%
10% -57.9% 8% -70.3%
15% -62.0% 8% -73.2%
20% -65.7% 8% -75.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$662
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 87
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage694d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 22¢ $6 $19 +$13 (+241%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 16¢ 32¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+103%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +165%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of May 18 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of May 18 2026? May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $7 +$7 +93%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? May 18 $10 −$4 -43%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? May 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 13 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 12? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in May? May 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? May 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? May 12 $3 $0 +19%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 12 $11 −$3 -28%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 11 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 10? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will XRP reach $1.50 May 4-10? May 10 $0 +$5 +7687%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8? May 09 $3 +$4 +159%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 Week of May 4 2026? May 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? May 08 $4 +$10 +250%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10? May 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on June 6? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $113K on June 3? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes $6 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY Yes $0 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 20? BUY Yes $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY Yes $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY No $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY No $1 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY No $1 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY No $0 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY No $0 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? BUY No $1 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY No $0 27d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of May 18 2026? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of May 18 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY No $1 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? BUY No $1 27d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 28d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? SELL Yes $6 28d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? SELL Yes $1 33d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes $3 34d
Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY Yes $1 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 12? BUY Yes $1 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 12? BUY Yes $0 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 12? BUY Yes $0 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 12? BUY Yes $0 34d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY Yes $3 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? BUY No $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.10 · official $26.10 (match) · 210 history records