Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3572…5ea6 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate77%20W / 6L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$20
sports 8% +$22
other 7% −$17
world 2% +$12
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.6% -11.9% 80% 25% -6.2%
≤30d 23 +1.2% -8.4% 83% 26% -3.1%
≤90d 26 -3.5% -12.7% 77% 27% -5.9%
all 26 -3.5% -12.7% 77% 27% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 27% -5.9%
10% -21.0% 15% -14.9%
15% -28.6% 15% -23.1%
20% -35.6% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses20 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage76d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$38 +120%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 27 $22 $0 +2%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 27 $30 +$3 +8%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 16 $15 +$12 +82%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 98¢ $22 35d
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 35d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 35d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 74d
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records