Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3570…1534
politics · 112 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$20 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage109d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Rockets vs. Bulls Rockets 78¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Trail Blazers Pacers 23¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Suns vs. Magic Suns 47¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mavericks 48¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $179 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 25 $183 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $196 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $182 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $162 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $700 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $355 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $209 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $157 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $185 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $162 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $166 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $211 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $196 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $194 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $217 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $149 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $151 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $358 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $376 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $399 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $206 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$10
politics 41% −$10
sports 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 5d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $19 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 13d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $179 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $179 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $154 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $154 18d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $183 19d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $183 19d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 19d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $196 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $182 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $182 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $162 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $162 22d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $176 22d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $176 22d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $176 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -1.3% -10.7% 7% 3% -9.7%
all 111 -0.8% -10.2% 8% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 4% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.99 · official $22.99 (match) · 310 history records