trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +49.3% | +35.0% | 100% | 100% | +35.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +49.3% | +35.0% | 100% | 100% | +35.0% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +49.3% | +35.0% | 100% | 100% | +35.0% |
| all | 20 | -1.1% | -10.6% | 65% | 50% | -42.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.6% | 50% | -42.7% |
| 10% | -19.1% | 30% | -48.1% |
| 15% | -26.9% | 25% | -53.2% |
| 20% | -34.1% | 10% | -57.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 45¢ | 34¢ | $650 | $498 | −$152 (-23%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 54¢ | 10¢ | $300 | $53 | −$247 (-82%) |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Yes | 39¢ | 1¢ | $110 | $2 | −$108 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Jun 17 | $100 | +$49 | +49% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | Mar 18 | $600 | −$600 | -100% |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? | Mar 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Mar 15 | $100 | −$43 | -43% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Mar 15 | $50 | +$11 | +22% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? | Mar 12 | $60 | +$11 | +19% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? | Mar 12 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 08 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Mar 08 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Mar 08 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Mar 06 | $300 | −$79 | -26% |
| Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? | Mar 02 | $420 | −$420 | -100% |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? | Mar 02 | $20 | +$8 | +42% |
| Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? | Mar 02 | $360 | +$148 | +41% |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026? | Mar 01 | $20 | +$7 | +34% |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by March 31, 2026? | Mar 01 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Mar 01 | $30 | +$18 | +59% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Mar 01 | $120 | +$25 | +21% |
| Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? | Feb 28 | $100 | +$138 | +138% |