Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x3565…e044 politics 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$5
other 22% −$3
culture 13% −$2
crypto 10% −$1
sports 10% −$2
economics 10% −$2
world 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$938) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage100d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? No 98¢ 98¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 28 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $1,217 −$2 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i May 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 21 $960 −$2 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election? May 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $938 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $984 −$2 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Mar 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 24 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Mar 20 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,347 22m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $14 31m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 40m
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,321 49m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 58m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $905 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $310 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,217 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $56 34d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 35d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 35d
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 94¢ $10 35d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 35d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 35d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 35d
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 94¢ $12 35d
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 94¢ $22 35d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $31 37d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 37d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $31 37d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 37d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $922 37d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 37d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $27 37d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $884 37d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $14 37d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 37d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $17 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.80 · official $40.78 (match) · 87 history records