Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3565…56e7 world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%37W / 53L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$11
other 25% +$2
politics 17% $0
sports 13% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 9% -9.4%
≤30d 22 -3.0% -12.2% 45% 9% -8.8%
≤90d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 39% 5% -9.1%
all 90 -1.2% -10.6% 41% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -9.2%
10% -19.1% 1% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 1% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses37 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage449d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 92¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $94 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $27 +$3 +12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 −$2 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $24 +$3 +12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $131 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $74 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $37 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $122 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $68 +$4 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $13 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 06 $37 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $39 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $48 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $43 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $44 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $26 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $7 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $19 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $15 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $32 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $44 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $37 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.58 · official $31.89 · 343 history records