Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3565…0b17
sports · 1027 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$6,690 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,051 · open +$647
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,797
Realized+$6,051
Unrealized+$647
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses519 / 501
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$1,204
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1020 / 1027
History coverage81d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 6 History 1020 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$735
7 days+$1,160
14 days−$330
30 days+$5,731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2,400 $2,343 −$57 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 43¢ 100¢ $500 $1,162 +$662 (+132%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $600 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 48¢ $420 $474 +$54 (+13%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? No 79¢ 76¢ $180 $174 −$6 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? No 38¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) Racing Club de Lens 43¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $123 $0 −$123 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 39¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Flyers 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16? No 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 55¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? No 62¢ 0¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 5.5 Over 12¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-03? No 58¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? No 52¢ 0¢ $480 $0 −$480 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) FC Bayern München 39¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,476 +$1,152 +78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $681 −$500 -73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,712 +$2,712 +100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 13 $30 −$1 -3%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $71 −$9 -13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $111 −$8 -8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $175 −$9 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,535 −$2,500 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $356 −$4 -1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $506 +$342 +68%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,820 −$1,800 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,119 +$922 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $407 +$126 +31%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $101 +$58 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $204 −$8 -4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $197 −$195 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,216 +$992 +82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $61 +$121 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1,516 −$1,500 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $36 −$35 -98%
CD Limache vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 2.5 May 31 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $729 +$352 +48%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $1,609 +$366 +23%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $213 −$210 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $254 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play May 29 $833 +$16 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $51 +$47 +93%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $301 −$4 -1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $230 −$225 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $162 −$160 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $560 −$550 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $101 +$74 +73%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,027 +$1,498 +74%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $51 +$52 +102%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $61 −$60 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2,127 +$1,377 +65%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) May 24 $61 +$69 +114%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $184 +$348 +190%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $41 +$35 +86%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $309 +$128 +42%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $117 +$102 +88%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 24 $79 +$65 +83%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $203 +$222 +109%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $76 +$87 +114%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,047 −$907 -87%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $914 −$900 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $151 −$150 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% +$1,830
other 36% +$4,756
crypto 0% +$15
world 0% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $404 57m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $181 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $51 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $427 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $607 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $608 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,416 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $508 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $509 13h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $255 13h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $509 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $132 25h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 53¢ $30 25h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 19¢ $46 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 30¢ $62 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $406 32h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $103 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 40¢ $84 32h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $165 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 32h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $171 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $406 32h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $704 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $352 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 52¢ $189 38h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,420 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.2% -13.3% 39% 39% -2.3%
≤30d 113 +4.2% -5.7% 51% 50% +1.3%
≤90d 1020 -3.0% -12.3% 51% 49% -6.2%
all 1020 -3.0% -12.3% 51% 49% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 49% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 48% -15.2%
15% -28.3% 45% -23.4%
20% -35.4% 40% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,796.67 · official $4,796.67 (match) · 2416 history records