Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3564…c023 crypto 665 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,929 (+16%) realized +$1,928 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%273W / 391L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day208.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$86
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -20.3% -27.9% 32% 31% -14.8%
≤30d 664 -12.6% -21.0% 41% 38% -9.3%
≤90d 664 -12.6% -21.0% 41% 38% -9.3%
all 664 -12.6% -21.0% 41% 38% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 38% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 33% -18.0%
15% -35.4% 28% -25.9%
20% -41.8% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$1,928
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses273 / 391
Open positions1
Markets (closed)664 / 665
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day208.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 664 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 32¢ 78¢ $11 $27 +$16 (+139%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 20¢ 22¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$9 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$7 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$9 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$16 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $59 +$18 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$29 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $89 −$29 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$19 +163%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$18 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$19 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$26 +335%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$16 +141%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$22 +285%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$7 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$21 +233%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$6 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$25 +525%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $6 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $17 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $7 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.51 · official $32.96 (match) · 3500 history records