Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:55:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3563…a0a2
sports · 896 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$269 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$302 · open −$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$510
Realized+$302
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses503 / 376
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions19
Markets (closed)879 / 896
History coverage10d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day216.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 879 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,389
7 days−$1,004
14 days+$302
30 days+$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 66¢ 85¢ $96 $122 +$27 (+28%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 64¢ 65¢ $60 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 51¢ 94¢ $24 $44 +$20 (+86%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 67¢ 62¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-7%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Under 37¢ 28¢ $35 $27 −$9 (-25%)
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Colorado Rockies 81¢ 89¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 71¢ 60¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-16%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Golden State Valkyries 51¢ 80¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+58%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Under 65¢ 94¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+44%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Golden State Valkyries 78¢ 96¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+23%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Over 47¢ 56¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+18%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 85¢ 92¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Colorado Rockies 68¢ 74¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Los Angeles Angels 30¢ 32¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ 66¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 17¢ 15¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+54%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 63¢ 44¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 70¢ 40¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-42%)
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Athletics 52¢ 26¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 30¢ 4¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-87%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Under 43¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Jun 13 $12 +$1 +7%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 13 $24 +$3 +13%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $48 +$8 +17%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 +$5 +38%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $120 $0 +0%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $24 −$9 -38%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $96 +$21 +22%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 13 $26 +$10 +38%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 +$2 +13%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $24 +$7 +31%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $30 +$1 +5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $12 +$4 +30%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $108 +$7 +6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $24 +$2 +7%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $12 +$2 +18%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $12 +$13 +108%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $36 +$33 +92%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 13 $36 −$12 -34%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $24 +$3 +13%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 13 $48 −$3 -6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $24 +$33 +136%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $12 +$1 +11%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 13 $36 +$49 +137%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $45 −$3 -7%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $36 −$4 -11%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 13 $12 +$1 +6%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) Jun 13 $24 −$8 -32%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $108 +$30 +27%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $12 +$3 +24%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $36 −$24 -66%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 13 $12 +$1 +9%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 13 $17 +$6 +38%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $12 +$7 +55%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $24 +$1 +4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $24 +$27 +112%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $12 +$6 +47%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $36 −$23 -65%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $24 +$1 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $12 +$2 +20%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $12 +$6 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$274
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 92¢ $12 3m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 86¢ $12 3m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 75¢ $12 3m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 79¢ $12 3m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 53¢ $12 3m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 90¢ $12 7m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 70¢ $12 8m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 73¢ $12 8m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 42¢ $12 8m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 67¢ $12 8m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $12 11m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 47¢ $12 13m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 39¢ $12 28m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 62¢ $12 28m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 78¢ $12 28m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $12 28m
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 95¢ $12 29m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 82¢ $12 30m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 52¢ $5 30m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 88¢ $12 32m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 21¢ $12 36m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 66¢ $12 36m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $12 39m
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 97¢ $12 39m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 95¢ $12 40m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 81¢ $12 40m
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 51¢ $12 40m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 78¢ $12 40m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $12 41m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 91¢ $12 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 692 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 38% -14.2%
≤30d 879 -3.0% -12.2% 57% 43% -8.4%
≤90d 879 -3.0% -12.2% 57% 43% -8.4%
all 879 -3.0% -12.2% 57% 43% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover216.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 43% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 33% -17.2%
15% -28.3% 24% -25.2%
20% -35.3% 17% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.82 · official $510.05 (match) · 3500 history records