Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3563…472c
weather · 34 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$18 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses26 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage77d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 11? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 5? Apr 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on Apri Apr 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 5? Apr 05 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ap Apr 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri Apr 03 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 4? Apr 03 $7 $0 +5%
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Apr 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $10 +$1 +8%
Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 3.5 Mar 29 $9 +$1 +9%
Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 4.5 Mar 29 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Mar 29 $9 $0 +1%
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Mar 28 $7 +$1 +14%
Canada vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Mar 28 $6 +$2 +28%
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Madagascar: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $6 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $6 $0 +2%
England vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Mar 27 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 55% −$14
sports 23% −$7
crypto 10% +$1
finance 8% +$1
other 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 100¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 88¢ $4 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 20¢ $12 32h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 33h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 38h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 38h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $8 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 64¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $4 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 100¢ $4 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 96¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? BUY No 93¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 59d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 13? BUY Up 96¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.8% -16.6% 69% 25% -25.8%
≤30d 16 -7.8% -16.6% 69% 25% -25.8%
≤90d 33 -3.5% -12.7% 79% 21% -16.9%
all 33 -3.5% -12.7% 79% 21% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 21% -16.9%
10% -21.0% 12% -24.8%
15% -28.7% 9% -32.1%
20% -35.6% 6% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.59 · official $4.59 (match) · 65 history records