Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3561…1bfe sports 417 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$446 (+4%) realized +$456 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%190W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$40
14 days+$25
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$624
other 4% −$166
crypto 0% −$14
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +34.4% +21.6% 100% 100% +21.7%
≤30d 81 -28.3% -35.1% 44% 40% -10.5%
≤90d 414 -23.9% -31.2% 46% 42% -16.7%
all 414 -23.9% -31.2% 46% 42% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 42% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -37.7% 34% -24.7%
15% -43.8% 24% -32.0%
20% -49.3% 15% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$456
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses190 / 224
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions3
Markets (closed)414 / 417
History coverage60d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-46%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $25 +$9 +34%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 24 $92 +$32 +35%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$2 +13%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$2 +18%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$6 +42%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $39 +$26 +67%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $25 −$8 -33%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $32 +$24 +75%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $27 +$20 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $27 −$9 -32%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $27 −$1 -4%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $30 −$5 -16%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 08 $23 +$14 +61%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $12 +$3 +26%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $26 +$13 +51%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $28 −$14 -48%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$10 +36%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$8 +29%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $24 +$17 +70%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $13 −$10 -72%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $50 −$37 -74%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $26 −$3 -11%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $26 −$26 -98%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $13 +$1 +11%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $13 +$6 +44%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $42 −$11 -26%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $27 +$19 +70%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $37 −$37 -99%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $51 −$25 -48%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $18 +$15 +81%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 04 $21 −$2 -9%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $12 +$9 +80%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $24 +$3 +12%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $13 −$13 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $60 +$5 +8%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $101 −$31 -30%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $50 −$9 -18%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $70 +$175 +249%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $25 −$22 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $34 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 74¢ $25 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $124 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $24 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $15 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 88¢ $13 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $12 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 55¢ $12 14d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $15 14d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 84¢ $13 14d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $19 14d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 69¢ $13 14d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $0 14d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $65 14d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 56¢ $12 14d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 60¢ $14 14d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 60¢ $13 14d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 1¢ $0 14d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 43¢ $12 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 15d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Cloud9 23¢ $10 15d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 43¢ $17 18d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 62¢ $12 18d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 63¢ $13 18d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner SELL LOUD 99¢ $57 18d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner BUY LOUD 30¢ $6 18d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner BUY LOUD 59¢ $13 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 1325 history records