Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3561…0f7d crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$19 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate79%34W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -0.3% -9.8% 79% 42% -14.3%
≤30d 43 -0.3% -9.8% 79% 42% -14.3%
≤90d 43 -0.3% -9.8% 79% 42% -14.3%
all 43 -0.3% -9.8% 79% 42% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 42% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 28% -22.5%
15% -26.3% 19% -30.0%
20% -33.6% 2% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses34 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 94¢ 54¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $34 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$15 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.85 · official $2.85 (match) · 100 history records