Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3561…d87c sports 43 markets active 4h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30,842 (-11%) realized −$30,842 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,281per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3,746est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40,959
7 days−$25,120
14 days−$38,362
30 days−$46,140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$9,287
other 23% −$33,353
world 1% −$3,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -5.3% -14.3% 39% 39% -24.6%
≤30d 43 -15.5% -23.5% 35% 35% -25.0%
≤90d 43 -15.5% -23.5% 35% 35% -25.0%
all 43 -15.5% -23.5% 35% 35% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 35% -25.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 35% -32.2%
15% -37.5% 35% -38.7%
20% -43.6% 35% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$6,559) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7,582 vs −$5,710 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30,842
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$3,746
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage24d
Avg bet$6,281
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16,082 −$15,784 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9,597 +$6,349 +66%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $112 +$69 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,962 −$2,904 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,695 −$6,559 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7,107 −$7,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3,970 +$5,629 +142%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,122 −$5,000 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3,468 −$3,400 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8,108 −$8,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4,457 −$4,359 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,971 +$4,443 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,091 −$5,000 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5,106 +$10,095 +198%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4,499 −$4,412 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,471 +$9,042 +165%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6,582 −$6,500 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $4,893 +$5,205 +106%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4,572 −$2,671 -58%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5,024 −$446 -9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4,361 −$3,898 -89%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,988 −$3,900 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6,125 −$6,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5,589 +$6,244 +112%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5,592 +$6,895 +123%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,943 +$7,334 +249%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,040 +$4,027 +197%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $4,731 −$4,618 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,905 −$2,869 -99%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $3,577 −$695 -19%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $6,313 −$6,178 -98%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3,583 −$3,500 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $6,005 −$5,868 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $20,058 +$16,239 +81%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20,289 −$20,000 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10,141 +$8,533 +84%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $11,555 +$10,137 +88%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $6,174 −$6,038 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $7,621 −$7,500 -98%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Omega (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champi May 24 $5,104 −$5,000 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5,413 +$13,490 +249%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,578 −$3,500 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $8,499 −$8,271 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $16,082 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15,946 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $181 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $9,597 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $112 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2,962 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $6,695 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $7,107 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $9,598 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5,122 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $3,970 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3,468 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $8,108 37h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $4,457 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,413 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $4,971 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5,091 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $15,201 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5,106 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $4,499 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5,471 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $6,582 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $10,098 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $1,900 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4,893 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $4,572 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $9,029 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $391 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 49¢ $4,568 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $456 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records