Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:57:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3561…f1b7 other 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$201 (+1%) realized −$1,409 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +137% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +83% what you keep after slip
Net edge+83%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%64W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day1938.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$2,369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,409
7 days−$1,409
14 days−$1,409
30 days−$1,409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$923
crypto 12% −$46
sports 6% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+114.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +137.1% +114.5% 47% 37% -24.3%
≤30d 137 +137.1% +114.5% 47% 37% -24.3%
≤90d 137 +137.1% +114.5% 47% 37% -24.3%
all 137 +137.1% +114.5% 47% 37% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1938.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +114.5% 37% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here +94.0% 33% -31.6%
15% +75.3% 29% -38.2%
20% +58.1% 27% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +137% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +175% → late +100% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$79 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,369
Realized−$1,409
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses64 / 73
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions112
Markets (closed)137 / 232
History coverage1d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1938.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 112 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $252 $251 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 6¢ 52¢ $15 $131 +$116 (+784%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 15¢ 46¢ $42 $129 +$87 (+210%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $58 $119 +$61 (+107%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $43 $106 +$63 (+147%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 62¢ $112 $105 −$7 (-6%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $103 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $44 $94 +$50 (+113%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $53 $77 +$24 (+45%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $74 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $43 $62 +$19 (+45%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $45 $61 +$16 (+35%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $53 $59 +$6 (+11%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 46¢ $28 $49 +$20 (+72%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $44 $42 −$3 (-6%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $15 $40 +$25 (+172%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 15¢ $15 $37 +$23 (+155%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Yes 6¢ 20¢ $9 $31 +$22 (+238%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $53 $29 −$24 (-45%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $44 $27 −$16 (-37%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $53 $24 −$29 (-54%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $13 $23 +$11 (+87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 +$35 +703%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 +$35 +703%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +446%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $188 −$174 -92%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $195 −$181 -93%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 14 $256 −$241 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $235 +$1,830 +778%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2,387 −$1,609 -67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $14 +$36 +250%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $7 +$32 +484%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $755 −$735 -97%
Curaçao to win the second half? Jun 14 $28 −$14 -51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Second half draw? Jun 14 $17 −$5 -28%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $32 −$78 -243%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$3 +32%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $663 +$270 +41%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $715 +$276 +39%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $786 +$305 +39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $182 −$179 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $123 −$120 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $43 −$75 -177%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $948 +$22 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $80 −$57 -71%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $32 −$81 -256%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $59 −$67 -114%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $59 −$67 -114%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $36 −$78 -215%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $14 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 +$100 +1024%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY No 86¢ $9 30m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6 30m
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 85¢ $9 30m
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 91¢ $9 30m
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 97¢ $10 30m
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 88¢ $9 30m
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? BUY No 93¢ $9 30m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $1 41m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $1 48m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 48m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY No 80¢ $3 48m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 56¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 69¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 94¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 56¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,369.22 · official $2,369.27 (match) · 3500 history records