Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x355e…f3bc crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-28%) realized −$13 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$3
crypto 37% −$7
politics 13% −$6
other 8% −$2
sports 3% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -41.3% -46.9% 25% 25% -25.5%
≤90d 20 -22.5% -29.9% 45% 30% -36.2%
all 42 -15.2% -23.3% 43% 36% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 36% -30.5%
10% -30.6% 31% -37.2%
15% -37.3% 24% -43.2%
20% -43.5% 21% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $4 +$1 +31%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -51%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 26 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 13 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 28 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +114%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Apr 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $1 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 03 $1 +$2 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 03 $1 +$1 +86%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $1 +$1 +132%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $1 +$2 +176%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +82%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $1 +$1 +108%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1 +$2 +186%
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Feb 06 $2 $0 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 15 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 39¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $2 21d
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 21d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 21d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 34d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 34d
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 49d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 54d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $2 54d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A SELL Vitality 100¢ $1 63d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A SELL 3DMAX 81¢ $1 63d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY 3DMAX 83¢ $1 63d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Vitality 91¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.76 · official $2.76 (match) · 97 history records