Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x355e…a038
politics · 183 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$8,956 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,673 · open +$733
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24,227
Realized+$3,673
Unrealized+$733
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses88 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions98
Markets (closed)114 / 183
History coverage16d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day211.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 98 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days+$591
14 days+$3,204
30 days+$3,673
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 78¢ 80¢ $2,588 $2,623 +$35 (+1%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $2,258 $2,249 −$9 (-0%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 53¢ 62¢ $1,290 $1,509 +$219 (+17%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $1,292 $1,448 +$156 (+12%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? No 66¢ 75¢ $1,201 $1,366 +$165 (+14%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,245 $1,348 +$103 (+8%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 76¢ 90¢ $731 $863 +$132 (+18%)
Obama federally charged before 2027? No 68¢ 95¢ $557 $781 +$224 (+40%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 84¢ 95¢ $673 $758 +$86 (+13%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? No 95¢ 96¢ $730 $735 +$5 (+1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 55¢ 28¢ $1,174 $593 −$580 (-49%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 64¢ 66¢ $524 $537 +$13 (+3%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 62¢ 52¢ $620 $525 −$94 (-15%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 41¢ 50¢ $401 $488 +$87 (+22%)
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? No 74¢ 84¢ $404 $459 +$55 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? No 80¢ 85¢ $413 $439 +$26 (+6%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30? No 67¢ 87¢ $320 $413 +$93 (+29%)
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $374 $372 −$2 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $352 $357 +$4 (+1%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 58¢ 74¢ $263 $335 +$71 (+27%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 81¢ 94¢ $274 $315 +$41 (+15%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $294 $301 +$6 (+2%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No 45¢ 48¢ $285 $298 +$13 (+5%)
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No 76¢ 83¢ $265 $288 +$23 (+9%)
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $254 $274 +$20 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 12 $436 −$424 -97%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 12 $413 −$387 -94%
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the announcers say "Yellow Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 12 $14 +$2 +18%
Will the announcers say "Mexico" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $95 +$1 +2%
Will the announcers say "Canada" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $55 +$3 +5%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 11 $125 +$14 +11%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $80 +$12 +16%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 11 $1,469 −$152 -10%
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Jun 11 $1,083 +$38 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $544 +$211 +39%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,587 +$344 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $105 +$50 +47%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $42 +$8 +19%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $325 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Jun 10 $161 +$19 +12%
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? Jun 10 $930 +$308 +33%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 10 $1,676 +$126 +8%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 10 $189 −$12 -6%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $669 −$16 -2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Jun 10 $246 +$11 +4%
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? Jun 10 $984 +$37 +4%
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? Jun 10 $1,871 +$258 +14%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 10 $41 +$14 +35%
Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 10 $58 +$16 +28%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 10 $104 +$6 +6%
Will Trump say "Muscle" in June? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +37%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $19 +$3 +17%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of Jun 09 $8 +$4 +52%
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026? Jun 09 $229 −$78 -34%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 09 $154 +$54 +35%
Will Starmer say "Investment" during the next Prime Minister's Questio Jun 09 $8 +$10 +124%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $37 +$19 +52%
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions even Jun 09 $633 +$114 +18%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? Jun 08 $90 −$4 -4%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 08 $641 +$30 +5%
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026? Jun 08 $342 +$39 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $90 −$46 -51%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $491 −$198 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $8 −$4 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $191 +$155 +81%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $774 −$92 -12%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Jun 07 $510 +$10 +2%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 07 $167 +$12 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $355 −$20 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 07 $193 +$22 +12%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 06 $503 +$43 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $124 +$6 +5%
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 54% +$3,030
other 30% +$700
tech 9% +$1,192
world 6% +$307
sports 1% −$30
finance 0% −$22
crypto 0% +$48
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 45m
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 2h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 2h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 2h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 6h
Will the announcers say "Yellow Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA SELL Yes 99¢ $16 6h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $18 6h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 7h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 8h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $35 8h
Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY Yes 90¢ $9 9h
Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY Yes 86¢ $26 9h
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of BUY No 59¢ $42 9h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 13¢ $36 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $13 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $13 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +43.8% +30.1% 75% 47% -6.7%
≤30d 114 +71.0% +54.7% 77% 45% +1.0%
≤90d 114 +71.0% +54.7% 77% 45% +1.0%
all 114 +71.0% +54.7% 77% 45% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover211.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.7% 45% +1.0%
10% ← realistic here +39.9% 25% -8.6%
15% +26.4% 20% -17.5%
20% +14.0% 17% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,226.88 · official $24,231.18 (match) · 3500 history records